11/19/09-by Bridgette P. LaVictoire
It is not official yet, but Rudy “Noun, Verb, and 9/11″ Giuliani appears poised to not challenge New York Governor David Paterson for the governorship next year, but rather to aim to take on Senator Kirsten Gilibrand in the upcoming senatorial race. While a run for the Senate might be a good jumping off point to go after the Presidency, Giuliani would face the same electability issues in a Senatorial campaign that he would face in a Gubernatorial campaign. Basically, no matter what Giuliani tried, he would have to face the cold reality that he may have very little political pull in regions of New York that can easily sway voters- those areas surrounding New York City.

Current polling for a general election match up between Giuliani and Gillibrand would put Giuliani with a six point advantage over her, but polling in a race between Giuliani and Paterson for the Governor’s mansion would result in Giuliani crushing Paterson. The big factor in his decision to not run for governor may be that Andrew Cuomo, son of former Governor Mario Cuomo, will more than likely run for governor, and he pretty much crushes all people in his way. Another possible reason for his decision to not run for governor may have to do with the chaotic nature of the New York General Assembly right now. However, it should be pointed out that he would not have to deal with all of those individuals should he win the race.

Gillibrand may have some issues in the Upstate region of New York because of her more liberal positions, which some felt betrayed her platform as a Blue Dog Democrat prior to becoming Senator. However, her advocacy for marriage equality will play well in many regions of the state, where support for marriage equality is growing.

Additionally, Giuliani’s growing Conservative credentials in the vein of Doug Hoffman could result in him losing support of more Moderate Republicans who will either not vote or who will vote for Gilibrand. In announcing his decision to not run for the Senate, Representative Peter King stated “Senator Gillibrand generates neither strong support nor opposition. This makes it virtually impossible for me to raise the campaign funds I would need to overcome the built-in Democratic registration advantage and the countless millions of dollars which the Democrats will make available to Senator Gillibrand.” This creates the same problem for Mayor Giuliani, who is a polarizing figure in and of himself. Recent polling regarding a potential race between Gillibrand and Giuliani may reflect more of the dissatisfaction with the current political situation and not any particular issue with Gillibrand.

Given that the term would be up in 2013, the fact that he is running to be a Senator for two years may not be a big issue, but the perception that he is more there to play on the national stage than represent the state could hurt his campaign severely given that this particular issue was one that hurt Doug Hoffman in his bid to become the Representative from New York District 23.

Giuliani’s personal exploits may also come back to haunt him in a run for the Senate. His flipping on social issues, and his exile from Gracie Mansion would become fodder for political attacks which will make the scandals surrounding John Ensign and Mark Sanford seem tame by comparison. Certainly the pictures of Giuliani in drag will make his base think twice about electing him.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has amassed quite a lot of power for one so young to the Senate. She has been a strong voice on LGBT and abortion rights. While she is a Fiscal Conservative in her positions even now, she has become a vocal social progressive.

Despite the tone of the New York Daily News article, and the headline proclaiming Giuliani will run for Senate, he has made no formal announcement. It should also be pointed out that Senators rarely win Presidential elections. Prior to Senator Obama becoming President, the last man to make the leap from Senate to President was John F. Kennedy in 1960. Giuliani would be better served becoming Governor of New York than becoming Senator. Since President Johnson, every President had served at least some time as Governor of a given state. In the last 109 years, eight Presidents have been Governor of a state, but only three Senators have gone to the Presidency without stopping somewhere else first- usually the Vice Presidency.

New York Daily News

Corrected for transposition of ‘i’ and ‘u’ in Giuliani’s name.

Published Date: 11/19/2009
SECTION: Politics & Law
SOURCE: Lez Get Real

Category: Featured, FeaturedNews, NewsPolitics, Politics2010 Election, 2010 ElectionAndrew Cuomo, Andrew CuomoDavid Paterson, David PatersonJohn Ensign, John EnsignKirsten Gillibrand, Kirsten GillibrandList o

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